Stationary vine copula models for multivariate time series

نویسندگان

چکیده

Multivariate time series exhibit two types of dependence: across variables and points. Vine copulas are graphical models for the dependence can conveniently capture both in same model. We derive maximal class graph structures that guarantee stationarity under a natural verifiable condition called translation invariance. propose computationally efficient methods estimation, simulation, prediction, uncertainty quantification show their validity by asymptotic results simulations. The theoretical allow misspecified and, even when specialized to iid case, go beyond what is available literature. Their proofs based on new general semiparametric method-of-moment estimators, which shall be independent interest. model illustrated an application forecasting returns portfolio 20 stocks, where they excellent forecast performance. paper accompanied open source software implementation.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Econometrics

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1872-6895', '0304-4076']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.11.015